The Prop Lab Thanksgiving Digest — Full Slate Breakdown
Where the numbers tell the truth… and the vibes get politely escorted off the property
Welcome back to The Lab — the only place where Thanksgiving football gets carved up with more precision than your aunt’s turkey spreadsheet.
Today isn’t just a slate.
It’s a buffet.
Three games, three totally different flavors, and a whole lot of spots where the market left the stuffing in the oven a little too long. We’ve got a track meet in Dallas, a clean efficiency meal in Detroit, and a Baltimore grinder where Cincinnati’s offense is basically trying to run through mashed potatoes.
As always, we’re here to chase conditions, not players — carving the slate by tempo, trenches, EPA, leverage, and red-zone behavior. And at the end, you’ll get Prop Lab’s Top 10 Thanksgiving Prop Angles, all by position only, no names, no projections, no guessing — just matchup math.
Grab a plate. Goggles on. Let’s eat.
⭐ Game 1 — Chiefs @ Cowboys
KC −3 | Total: 52.5
Prop Lab GES: 67.8 (Tier: Strong Play)
This is the game your TV volume was made for. Both teams play fast, both teams want the ball, and the defenses are basically the bouncers saying, “Come on in, scores are welcome tonight.”
🔥 Why This Game Works
This matchup is the NFL equivalent of ordering bottomless mimosas — the volume never stops.
KC tempo: 66.5 plays, 29.4 sec/play
DAL tempo: 64.8 plays, 28.4 sec/play
Both are high-density offenses. If the NFL had surge pricing, this would be it.
📈 Passing Edges
KC has a +0.22 EPA advantage throwing the ball, and their run game has a +22 trench mismatch (that is massive). Dallas is fine… until you remember their pass protection is basically a paper plate trying to block a windstorm.
🚨 The Hidden Story
Dallas’ defense is giving up 69% TDs in the red zone.
KC’s offense converts 60%.
That’s the “two shots of espresso in the same cup” type of mismatch.
This isn’t a game where drives die. They graduate.
🎯 Prop Angles (No Player Names)
Volume Tilt: YES — Fast tempo + strong EPA = attempts/completions stability.
Yardage Tilt: YES — KC provides explosive stability, DAL plays catch-up.
Carry Tilt: Light Yes — KC’s run trench mismatch offers sneaky value.
TD Tilt: YES — Red-zone matchup is a cheat code.
Defensive Tilt: NO — Pressure exists, but not enough for defensive props to be the edge.
🧠 Lab Conclusion
This is a clean, high-energy scoring ecosystem. Both offenses move, both convert, and neither defense can consistently win money downs.
The Lab leans Over and favors volume + yardage + TD-centric prop ecosystems.
⭐ Game 2 — Packers @ Lions
DET −3 | Total: 47.5
Prop Lab GES: 61.2 (Tier: Playable)
Think of this game like a well-made sandwich — structurally sound, satisfies what you need, but it’s not blowing the doors off the fridge.
⚙️ Game DNA
Tempo is right around league average, but the efficiency is what matters here.
Pass EPA: Both teams show clean passing leverage (+0.18 combined delta).
Rush EPA: Slightly positive on both sides — not explosive, just healthy.
Red Zone: Both around 65% TD.
Third Down: GB has a 49% conversion rate, quietly elite.
When both teams move the ball efficiently, you don’t need frantic pace. The yards take care of themselves.
⚔️ Trench Problems
Both teams lose the pass-protection battle:
GB: −31
DET: −37
These numbers scream:
“Friends don’t let friends run deep-developing routes.”
This pushes the game into a quick-game, timing-based offense — great for volume props, tougher for deep yardage ladders.
🎯 Prop Angles
Volume Tilt: YES — Efficient passing on both sides supports attempts/completions.
Yardage Tilt: NO — The trenches cap explosive stability.
Carry Tilt: NO — Slight run edges, but script stays balanced.
TD Tilt: YES — Both sides finish drives; low field-goal likelihood.
Defensive Tilt: NO — Pressure exists but not destructive.
🧠 Lab Conclusion
Packers–Lions is a steady scoring environment, carried by efficient passing and strong red-zone behavior. Detroit holds the slight script control through the run game, but Green Bay’s 3rd-down success keeps them live.
Lean Slight Over, but this isn’t a “fireworks or bust” game — it’s more of an “efficient 24–27” type ecosystem.
⭐ Game 3 — Bengals @ Ravens
BAL −7 | Total: 52.5
Prop Lab GES: 58.9 (Tier: Playable)
This game looks spicy on the surface… until you dig into the passing matchups and realize one team is basically fighting the ocean with a broom.
📉 One-Sided Passing Equation
CIN vs BAL coverage: −0.32 EPA (major negative)
BAL vs CIN coverage: +0.16 EPA (advantaged)
This is the kind of mismatch where the numbers don’t politely hint — they yell.
🧱 Trench Mismatches
CIN Pass Trench: −24
BAL Pass Trench: −33 (dinged by sack rate ≥9%)
BAL Run Trench: +22 (biggest meaningful edge)
Baltimore has the only real trench leverage, and it’s on the ground.
This leans the entire game toward BAL-led, possession control scoring.
🧬 The Real Engine: CIN’s Defense
CIN Def RZ: 65% TD allowed
CIN Def 3rd Down: 48.6% allowed (terrible)
This is why Baltimore’s drives don’t die — they extend.
If this were a video game, CIN’s defense would have the “auto-aim for offenses” perk.
🎯 Prop Angles
Volume Tilt: NO — BAL plays slow, CIN is inefficient.
Yardage Tilt: YES (Baltimore) — BAL has explosive stability.
Carry Tilt: YES (Baltimore) — Run advantage + script control.
TD Tilt: YES — CIN’s defense is a touchdown delivery service.
Defensive Tilt: Light YES — Sack pressure + CIN protection losses.
🧠 Lab Conclusion
This isn’t a shootout.
It’s a Baltimore-shaped game, controlled by run leverage, sustained drives, and CIN’s inability to get off the field.
Model leans Under (slight) because it doesn’t project enough two-way scoring unless Baltimore hits a ceiling outcome.
🧪 Final Lab Wrap-Up
This three-game window gives us three totally different scoring ecosystems:
1. KC @ DAL — Turbo Mode
Fast, explosive, multi-path scoring. Tier: Strong Play
2. GB @ DET — Smooth & Efficient
Quietly solid on both sides, balanced scripts, clean red zone. Tier: Playable
3. CIN @ BAL — One-Sided Script
Baltimore control, run leverage, CIN uphill all game. Tier: Playable (Upgraded)
Each one delivers different prop ecosystems — volume in KC/DAL, TD stability in GB/DET, and Baltimore-sided value in CIN/BAL.
🔥 Prop Lab — Top 10 Prop Angles (Position-Based Only)
(No player names. Pure structural edges.)
1. KC QB — Pass Attempts (Over)
Why:
Fastest combined tempo of the slate, strong pass EPA advantage (+0.22), and DAL’s defense extends drives by allowing 49% on 3rd down.
KC is in a multi-path script where throwing is both efficient and necessary.
2. KC RB1 — Carries (Over)
Why:
KC has the biggest run-trench mismatch of the entire slate (+22 vs DAL’s run defense).
Any positive game script funnels controlled, stable RB volume.
3. KC WR1 — Receiving Yards (Over)
Why:
KC has the largest passing leverage in these matchups, and Dallas’ defense allows drives to sustain and finish.
Explosives are live, and KC can dictate pace.
4. DAL Slot / WR2 — Receptions (Over)
Why:
Dallas’ pass script is quick-game and timing-based due to negative pass protection (−14).
WR2/slot roles benefit most from pressure-induced short-area targets.
5. DET RB1 — Anytime TD / TD Involvement
Why:
Detroit owns positive run EPA and a +13 run-trench edge, plus both defenses allow 58–61% RZ TDs.
RB1 is the most stable red-zone role here.
6. GB WR1 — Receptions (Over)
Why:
GB’s passing matchup vs DET is highly efficient (+0.24 EPA delta), but the trenches are bad.
That forces timing routes — WR1 volume sustains even if yardage ceiling is capped.
7. GB QB — Completions (Over)
Why:
Same logic: efficient passing + poor trenches = high quick-game volume.
Green Bay converts 49% on 3rd down — one of the best on the slate.
8. BAL RB1 — Carries (Over)
Why:
Baltimore holds a +22 run-trench advantage vs CIN’s front — the biggest edge of that matchup.
Baltimore is also favored by TD+ and plays slow, feeding RB1 control scripts.
9. BAL WR2 / TE1 — TD Scoring Angles
Why:
CIN’s defense allows 65% red-zone TDs, and BAL’s passing EPA is positive (+0.16).
The defense collapses centrally, making WR2/TE1 the cleanest structural leverage.
10. CIN QB — Pass Attempts (Over) in negative script only
Why:
CIN is likely playing from behind with negative pass EPA but elevated pace from quick snap timing (27.6 sec/play).
Volume increases not from efficiency — but from necessity.
⚗️ Bonus Hidden Angle (High-Leverage):
DAL RB1 — Receiving Yards (Over)
Why:
Dallas has protection problems (−14 pass trench), KC pressures without collapsing EPA, and that combo forces checkdown volume.
This angle is structurally supported in every KC vs pressure-heavy matchup.
And that’s your Thanksgiving slate, cooked, carved, and plated.
Three games, three different scoring ecosystems, and ten prop angles built entirely from structure — no “he’s due,” no vibes, no fantasy-projection cosplay. Just EPA, tempo, trenches, and red-zone leverage doing what they always do: reveal the truth.
If you found this breakdown helpful, tap the heart and pass the plate — share it with someone who still bets based on “gut feel.” And if you want the deeper prop ladders, premium tilts, and all the good leftovers, you know where to find them on the paid side of The Lab.
Enjoy the games, enjoy the food, and remember:
Hope isn’t an edge — it’s just gravy with better marketing.
See you next slate.
L.S. signing off ⚗️
Jared
Lead Scientist — The Prop Laboratory
🧪Curious how these scores are made?
Here’s how the Lab builds GES →
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