🧪 Prop Lab Daily GES Report — Full NBA Slate Breakdown (Nov. 26)
Tier-5 hammers. Tier-4 engines. Tier-3 traps. Welcome back inside The Lab.
Tonight’s board is one of those “bring extra beakers” slates — three Tier-5 smash zones, two high-end Tier-4s, and a handful of “maybe just watch from a distance” games at the bottom.
Let’s crack this thing open.
1. Full Slate Ranking (Highest → Lowest GES)
PHX @ SAC (88) — Track meet with no defense; PHX glass edge + SAC turnover pace = pure chaos.
SA @ POR (85) — Elite offensive rebounding on both sides + fast pace = PRA bonfire.
NYK @ CHA (83) — CHA defensive collapse fuels one of the most scoring-friendly games of the season.
MEM @ NOP (84) — Two collapsing defenses + high turnover rate + paint scoring = stat explosion.
HOU @ GSW (81) — High-efficiency scoring + GSW pace + HOU OREB hammer = nearly Tier-5.
MIL @ MIA (78) — Miami pace + MIL bad defense create a clean, high-efficiency environment.
IND @ TOR (82) — TOR’s elite efficiency + IND defense collapse = points/PRA everywhere.
MIN @ OKC (75) — Great efficiency but OKC elite defense keeps volatility controlled.
DET @ BOS (68) — Good efficiency but BOS pace anchor keeps ceiling low-mid.
🧪 GAME #1 – PHX @ SAC
GES: 88 / 100 — Tier 5 Explosive
A. Environment Summary
Phoenix–Sacramento is what happens when you throw two offenses into a track meet and tell the defenses, “Just try not to get completely embarrassed.”
Sacramento’s pace, awful defense, and shaky rebounding combine with Phoenix’s shooting and offensive rebounding to create one of the cleanest points + PRA + rebounds environments on the slate. Turnovers add just enough chaos to push it into smash territory.
B. TL;DR
Premium spot for PHX scoring, PRA, and rebounds.
SAC scorers still get there because PHX turns it over and pushes pace.
Glass is heavily tilted toward PHX bigs/wings.
Book + Brooks + Mark Williams + DeRozan + LaVine/Westbrook sit at the center of gravity.
C. Environment
Pace & Possession
PHX Pace ~100, SAC Pace ~102+ → legit fast.
Both sides give up 15.5+ fastbreak points.
PHX TOV% ~16.4 → extra possessions for SAC.
Efficiency
PHX OffRtg ~116, SAC OffRtg ~109.
PHX DefRtg ~113, SAC DefRtg ~120 (bottom-tier).
Combined TS% near 58% → strong scoring base.
Shooting
SAC allows ~50% FG → one of the softest profiles on the slate.
PHX shoots ~55% eFG / ~59% TS.
Both teams have multiple on-ball engines and volume shooters.
Rebounds & Turnovers
PHX OREB% ~35% → real edge on the glass.
SAC Opp DREB% is weak → easy second-chance work.
Both teams’ turnover issues feed extra transition and possessions.
D. Layer-2 Archetype Fit
Helped
Primary creators/scorers: Devin Booker, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Russell Westbrook.
Rebounding bigs/forwards: Mark Williams, Oso Ighodaro, Precious Achiuwa, Eubanks.
Movement/volume shooters: Booker, LaVine, Monk, Gillespie, O’Neale.
PRA glue guys: Jordan Goodwin, Camara-type connectors.
Hurt
Low-usage defensive specialists who don’t rebound or shoot.
Centers who only block shots and never touch the ball.
E. Practical Prop Angles
Devin Booker — Points / PRA / Assists
Volume, pace, and SAC’s defense all line up. Clear A-tier lane.Mark Williams — Rebounds / PRA
PHX OREB vs SAC’s soft interior is one of the best big-man spots on the slate.DeRozan / LaVine — Points / PRA
Both get pace, soft coverage, and FT equity.Malik Monk — Alt Points / PRA (volatile ceiling)
Perfect game type if he gets hot; you’re buying environment + role.PHX shooters (Booker, Gillespie, O’Neale) — 3PM
SAC rotations and contests are late more often than not.
🔬 Nerd Corner — PHX @ SAC
OffRtg: PHX ~115.8, SAC ~109.3
DefRtg: PHX ~112.6, SAC ~119.9
Pace: ~101–102 combined
PHX OREB%: ~34.9 (big edge)
SAC Opp FG%: ~50.1%
SAC Opp AST: ~29+ (boosts PHX assist props)
Opp FB Pts Allowed: 15.5+ each way
Tag:Fast, soft, and glass-heavy — elite for points, PRA, and rebounds on both sides, with PHX leaning hardest.
