⚗️ Lab Notes: Week 12 GES — The Slate Through a Scientist’s Eyes
How tempo, trenches, and efficiency shape the NFL’s real scoring engines.
Welcome back to the Lab.
Every week, we run every matchup through our six-layer engine — EPA, trenches, tempo, red zone, third down, and market context — to produce a single output:
The Game Environment Score (GES).
It’s not a fantasy model. It’s not a projection system.
It’s a stability detector — built to answer one question:
“Which NFL games actually support clean, repeatable scoring?”
Because not every 47.5 is created equal…and not every 39.5 is dead.
Below is the full slate. After that, we dive into the Top 3 environments, then the Prop Tilt Matrix for anyone building prop cards.
Let’s heat up the beakers.
🧪 Full Slate — GES Rankings
(1 = most stable scoring environment)
TB @ LAR — 72.4 (Hard Play)
IND @ KC — 67.8 (Strong Play)
PHI @ DAL — 66.1 (Strong Play)
CAR @ SF — 61.7 (Strong Play)
NYG @ DET — 59.8
PIT @ CHI — 59.4
JAX @ ARI — 56.4
MIN @ GB — 51.9
NE @ CIN — 46.7
ATL @ NO — 48.2
SEA @ TEN — 44.1
NYJ @ BAL — 43.8
CLE @ LV — 42.3
Top-heavy slate. The bottom half is trench-driven suppression.
The top half? Beautiful chaos.
Let’s break down the heavy hitters.
🔬 1) TB @ LAR — 72.4 (Hard Play)
“When run gravity meets passing stability.”
This environment works because each team brings something the other doesn’t.
Tampa:
• Neutral passing EPA (0.00) — not elite, but stable
• Slight tempo lift
• Red zone volatility tilts positive
Rams:
• A legitimate run-trench edge: +21
• Strong red zone scoring (64%)
• Clean sequencing that keeps possessions alive
The pass protection is shaky on both sides — TB at −13.1, LAR at −20.1 — but what matters isn’t how often pressure shows up. It’s whether the offense has a reliable way around it.
For LAR, that’s the ground game.
For TB, that’s the dropback structure.
When each side has a functional offensive outlet, a game becomes “two-sided stable.” And two-sided stable is the highest form of scoring reliability in the GES universe.
GES View:
This is the most balanced environment of the week — pace, redundancy, red zone efficiency, and run-game stabilizers all align.
It earns the No. 1 ranking because it’s the hardest for either defense to break.
🔬 2) IND @ KC — 67.8 (Strong Play)
“Dual EPA positive — the cleanest efficiency game on the slate.”
Most weeks, one team walks into an EPA advantage and the other walks into a trench advantage.
Here? Both teams bring EPA and trench support simultaneously.
Indianapolis:
• Pass Δ: +0.15
• Rush Δ: +0.22
• Pass Trench: +9.8
• Run Trench: +10.0
Kansas City:
• Pass Δ: +0.25
• Rush Δ: +0.07
• Run Trench: +5.0
This combination is rare: both sides have clear, stable scoring engines.
KC brings the top passing EPA advantage of the matchup.
IND brings the better run-game structure.
Both finish drives.
Both extend drives.
Neither team suppresses pace.
In GES terms, this game is the purest form of “clean efficiency.”
It earns the No. 2 spot because KC’s passing leverage lifts explosiveness while IND’s run-game strength keeps the environment steady.
GES View:
If you wanted a template for an “Over-friendly” scoring ecosystem, this is it.
🔬 3) PHI @ DAL — 66.1 (Strong Play)
“Tempo from Dallas. Trenches from Philly. Finishing from both.”
Dallas drives the pace of this game — 64.5 plays, fast sequencing, and consistent drive volume.
Philadelphia brings the single biggest trench advantage in the top 3: Run Trench +26.
That combination creates rhythm.
Dallas passing:
• ΔPassEPA: +0.20 — strongest passing edge in any top-3 game
• Script-friendly tempo
• Multiple ways to move the ball
Philadelphia red zone:
• 75% TD rate — elite
• DAL D RZ allowed 66.7% — soft
• Scoreboard leverage is real here
The pass trenches are volatile — DAL at −23.1, PHI at −12.3 — but volatility is a ceiling amplifier, not a floor killer, when the offensive structures underneath it are strong.
GES View:
Pace pushes volume.
Trenches support stability.
EPA adds explosiveness.
Red zone adds finishing.
It’s a top-3 game because it checks a box in every category.
🎯 Prop Tilt Matrix — Player-Facing Angles
(No player names. No projections. Just category-level direction.)
The Lab doesn’t say “play X.”
The Lab says: “This type of player benefits from this type of environment.”
Below are the strongest structural tilts of Week 12.
🏃 Carry Tilts (RB Attempts)
🧨 1) DET — Premium Carry Tilt
Trench Run Δ: +34
One of the best run-blocking mismatches of the week.
Detroit RB attempts gain the clearest structural support.
🧨 2) SF — Strong Carry Tilt
Run Trench Δ: +13
Game script + red zone + line play = stable early-down runway.
🧨 3) CAR — EPA-Based Carry Tilt
Rush Δ: +0.17 (top-3 EPA edge of the week)
Even with a negative trench, the EPA matchup gives CAR RBs efficiency-driven support.
🧨 4) JAX — Hybrid Carry Tilt
Rush Δ: +0.09
Run Trench Δ: +13
The rare EPA + trench combo.
🎯 Yardage Tilts (WR/TE/RB Yards)
📈 1) KC Passing Yardage Tilt
Pass Δ: +0.25
Structure favors intermediate and deep routes.
📈 2) TB Passing Volume/Yardage Tilt
TB Pass Δ: 0.00
But TB run trench is −28, pushing volume to the air by necessity.
📈 3) DET Secondary Yardage Tilt
Moderate trench pass advantage + projected defensive shell = clean yardage structure.
🧪 Volume Tilts (Pass Attempts & Receptions)
🔊 1) DAL Passing Volume
Tempo + pass EPA + defensive structure = consistent pass funnel.
🔊 2) TB Passing Volume
Negative run environment forces dropbacks.
🏈 Touchdown Tilts (Anytime TD)
💥 1) PHI TD Tilt (Best of Week)
• PHI RZ: 75%
• DAL RZ allowed: 66.7%
Everything in this matchup leads to reliable red zone access.
💥 2) DET TD Tilt
• NYG RZ allowed: ~74%
• DET RZ strong
Cleanest NFC scoring funnel.
💥 3) LAR TD Tilt
• LAR O RZ ~64%
• TB D RZ allowed ~64%
The Rams’ red-zone core gains the strongest finishing leverage.
🔥 Defensive Tilts (Sacks/Takeaways)
1) CLE @ LV — Defensive Tilt of the Week
• CLE Pass Trench: −53
• LV Pass Trench: +16.7
A pass-rush spike environment.
2) SEA @ TEN — Double Negative Pass Trenches
• SEA: −16.2
• TEN: −15.9
Both defenses benefit from structural pressure.
3) NYJ @ BAL — Sneaky Pressure Game
• NYJ: −11.4
• BAL: −8.4
Not catastrophic, but consistently negative.
🧾 Final Word
GES isn’t about predicting a score.
It’s about predicting scoring conditions.
Tempo is opportunity.
EPA is efficiency.
Trenches are truth.
Red zone is gravity.
Third down is survival.
When you combine all of them, you stop betting vibes and start betting environment.
L.S. signing off ⚗️
Jared
Lead Scientist — The Prop Laboratory
🔗 Recommended Reads
👉 Field Study #1 — The Spark Before the Fire: Why Game Environment Is Everything
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